World News: Kiev or Rafah

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Category: World News

Published on Tuesday, 14 May 2024 06:26

Written by Olivier Longhi

While Vladimir Putin's Russia seems to be deriving many benefits from the conflict between Hamas and Israel, it is also helped by the historical sensitivity of the Middle East and the upheavals of the bad actors in control.

From a political, military, and tactical point of view, it must be recognized that the opening of a front north of Karkhiv by Russian forces, without being a matter of genius, is cleverly played, for several reasons.

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The first is that while waiting for the weapons and the credits both allocated by the United States, Ukraine finds itself in a most uncomfortable situation: Lack of men and ammunition, territory amputated every day even more than the day before... all these elements are working for the success of the operation launched by Vladimir Putin more than two years ago.

The second is that, obsessed with the conflict between Hamas and Israel, world attention has been focused since October 7 on the Middle East, making Moscow the objective winner of the confrontation between the terrorist movement and the Jewish state. It didn't take much for Vladimir Putin to allow him to continue his campaign against Kiev. The current situation is thus quite explicit, not to say obvious, on the weight of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in international public opinion.

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Hierarchy of Despair

Long a global diplomatic concern, the conflict in Eastern Europe has suddenly been supplanted by the conflict that has been shaking the Middle East for more than half a century now. Some would see it as a form of cynicism (diplomacy is full of it, however) while others would cry foul, arguing that a conflict, whatever it may be, is no more important than another, that there is no hierarchy in the distress and despair caused by one or the other.

This last thesis proves to be most accurate from a moral and human point of view, but it is clear that some regions of the world are more sensitive than others, because of their history but also because of the actors who express themselves there.

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The infernal trio of Iran, Israel and the United States is enough on its own to focus all attention because all of them, except the United States, know how to be eruptive and impulsive to the point of definitively and cruelly inflaming the region.

The proximity, moreover, of the oil-producing areas (Persian Gulf, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq) reinforces this feeling of fear. Does this mean that Ukraine and its sacrificed freedoms weigh less in the diplomatic balance? It is up to each of us to answer this question, but it is not impossible to think that because it was devoid of all vital energy raw materials, Ukraine had, well before 7 October, begun to lose all interest in the eyes of Western chancelleries, some of which tacitly opted for a stalemate and the end of a status quo of the conflict, others for a measured aid to be granted, aid substantial enough to give Kiev the feeling of not abandoning it without committing too much and thus avoiding the consequences that could ensue.

A diplomatic dilemma if ever there was one... But for the time being, one reality is clear: the opening of a new front in Ukraine by Russia and the threat of a large-scale military operation in Rafah (Gaza Strip) are keeping the various chancelleries on the edge of their seats. Namely, who will be more scrutinized, the opening of the new front or the Israeli threat to Rafah?

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Bio: Olivier Longhi has extensive experience in European history. A seasoned journalist with fifteen years of experience, he is currently professor of history and geography in the Toulouse region of France. He has held a variety of publishing positions, including Head of Agency and Chief of Publishing. A journalist, recognized blogger, editor, and editorial project manager, he has trained and managed editorial teams, worked as a journalist for various local radio stations, a press and publishing consultant, and a communications consultant.