World News: The Dominoes of Mesopotamia
- Details
- Category: Haute This Issue
- Published on Tuesday, 03 March 2026 11:20
- Written by Olivier Longhi
The conflict unleashed by the United States and Israel against Iran is opening a period of uncertainties in which all Western and Gulf countries are plunged, while the question of the geopolitical recomposition is already being raised.
The geopolitical bomb represented by the conflict opened by the United States and Israel against the Islamic Republic of Iran will continue to project its outbursts throughout the world. Although localized in Mesopotamia and the Middle East, the conflict involves, already by domino effect, many nations that were not involved in the conflict at first glance, but which, through their military presence in the region, and therefore of various and varied interests, are led to choose sides.
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In a typical Manichaeism of the United States, namely if you are not with us, you are against us, the British, the French and others, will have a lot of difficulty in remaining fixed on a line of conduct inspired by the strict defense of their particular interests.
Infernal Hydra
This conflict, which throws a stone in the pond of relations and international law, certainly sounds the death knell for the Islamic Republic of Iran, although like an infernal hydra, the Shiite elites are capable of proposing a replacement for Ali Khamenei, Alirezza Arafi would be the first on the list of possible successors.
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However, the mullahs' regime and its cronies, Hezbollah and Hamas, seem considerably weakened to the point that the conflict presents no doubt as to its outcome, if any doubt ever existed. In reality, it is above all the consequences of the conflict that are being questioned today, the surge in oil prices linked to the conflict, the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and the soaring price of gas expose Western countries to unforeseen economic hazards that are likely to thwart economic growth sensitive to this type of vicissitude. But it is above all the geopolitical consequences that raise even more questions. Among them, what will become of Iran? A democracy or a regime still tinged with rigorist Islam?
What will happen to the nuclear issue? How will Israel position itself with regard to this new regime which, as it does today, can rely on oil and gas reserves that can constitute a bargaining chip? More than a geopolitical turning point, this conflict is intended to be an open door to a brighter tomorrow for Iran or a Pandora's box.
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Bombing
No one knows it now, the Iranian people, for the moment happy with the potential fall of the mullahs' regime, could quickly tire of the repeated bombings, especially if the number of victims were to increase exponentially. At the same time, the Gulf countries, which are also involved, will most likely have to adopt a different policy and posture towards this new country, if by chance the current regime falls definitively. Iran is not Venezuela with a president who is kidnapped like in an adventure movie scenario.
Iran is a powerful country, whatever one may say, a regional anchor supported, discreetly since the beginning of the offensive, by Russia and China, uncomfortable in the face of the offensive led by Israel and the United States. And for good reason, it would not occur to Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping to offend Donald Trump by questioning him about the relevance of his military operations, whether they are legitimate or not.
In the end, this war, which will not last forever and began for the United States in the Iranian desert in 1979, may be about to end, but for Israel, it opens the way to a potential existence in peace. But nothing is less certain for both of them.
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Bio: Olivier Longhi has extensive experience in European history. A seasoned journalist with fifteen years of experience, he is currently a professor of history and geography in the Toulouse region of France. He has held a variety of publishing positions, including Head of Agency and Chief of Publishing. A journalist and recognized blogger, editor, and editorial project manager, he has trained and managed editorial teams, worked as a journalist for various local radio stations, was a press and publishing consultant, and was a communications consultant.
