World News: The Post Putin Era and the Floodgate

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Category: World News - Europe

Published on Monday, 26 June 2023 13:49

Written by Olivier Longhi

If Vladimir Putin's power trembled without collapsing under the blow of the Wagners, the abortive attempt at overthrow nevertheless opens the perspective of the post-Putin era that has become inevitable. But for which regime to come?

Rebellion, coup de force, attempted coup d'état, there is no shortage of words and expressions to describe the action carried out by the paramilitaries of Wagner and their leader Yevgeny Prigogine against Vladimir Putin. And you don't have to be an informed political scientist or a great specialist on Russia to understand and predict that this kind of event is likely to happen again in the days or weeks to come.

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One thing is obvious: Vladimir Putin is threatened within it by men he believed to be loyal to his regime, his policies and even more so to his person. Weakened, despite the support shown by China, Vladimir Putin will now have to count his friends and choose his alliances carefully and carefully so as not to weaken a most fragile position.

What 's Next

Because, and it is certainly a matter of time, Vladimir Putin will not fall by the underground and secret actions carried out by the powers outside Russia but by an internal opposition, tired of his autocratic power and his decisions against the tide of history.

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Yevgeny Prigogine, who was the first to kick Putin's anthill, will probably be followed by others who will try, to achieve this, to remove Vladimir Putin. Everything is now a matter of time. And the question that then arises is: but for which regime? The possible fall, which has suddenly become probable, of Vladimir Putin, thus opens new perspectives for a country mired in a conflict without horizon and without geopolitical or geostrategic relevance.

Imagining a democratic transition in a nation formatted by more than twenty democtature or dictacracy, a clever mix of modern democracy and all-powerful state, is an option, but the major risk to which Russia is exposed remains that of political and social chaos, of unknown duration, in the event of Putin's fall, which would further weaken a country that has been ostracized for more than a year. And out of this chaos could be born, not necessarily an open and democratic regime, but a new authoritarian episode like the one Putin has led since 1999.

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Schemes and Plans

So, indeed, seen from the West, the Wagner coup sounded like a form of good news, naturally to be weighed because these paramilitaries are not enlightened democrats, but the attempt to overthrow Putin by the latter has exposed the flaws of an exhausted state and system.

Vladimir Putin, an endless admirer of the Soviet regime and who throughout his successive presidencies has tried to reproduce the patterns of the former Eastern bloc, has allowed himself to be blinded by an illusion of power that his person and his regime have tried to promote relying on clans close to power who found in this proximity, like the Russian oligarchs, many satisfactions.

For the time being, if the tension seems to be slowly falling, it should not be forgotten that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the first driving force behind the attempt to overthrow the Wagners, continues, that the paramilitaries, paid to act, will always follow those who will be the most generous with them and that the political and structural weaknesses of Russia. Blatant now, silently feeds a current of contestation that, sooner or later, will eventually emerge without accepting failure as an option.

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Bio: Olivier Longhi has extensive experience in European history. A seasoned journalist with fifteen years of experience, he is currently professor of history and geography in the Toulouse region of France. He has held a variety of publishing positions, including Head of Agency and Chief of Publishing. A journalist, recognized blogger, editor, and editorial project manager, he has trained and managed editorial teams, worked as a journalist for various local radio stations, a press and publishing consultant, and a communications consultant.