Emerson College Poll: Clinton Now Leads in Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina. Trump Favorability Drops
- Details
- Category: Beltway Insider
- Published on Friday, 14 October 2016 07:14
Three Emerson College polls released today show Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump in Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina. These states represent a total of 46 electoral votes or 17% of the 270 needed to win the presidency.
In an earlier round of Emerson polls, Clinton was only winning the 13 electoral votes in Virginia.
All three polls published today were conducted after the second presidential debate and the release of a "hot mic" recording that captured Trump making lewd comments and recounting how he made uninvited sexual advances toward women. The polls were conducted from October 10-12 and have a margin of error of +/-3.9 percentage points.
Figure 1: Presidential Ballot Test
| OH | VA | NC | |
| Clinton | 45% | 46% | 46% |
| Trump | 43% | 43% | 42% |
| Johnson | 7% | 6% | 5% |
| Stein | 2% | - | 3% |
| Unsure | 4% | 4% | 5% |
In the U.S. Senate race in Ohio, incumbent Rob Portman has a commanding 17-point lead over former Governor Ted Strickland. In North Carolina, Democrat Deborah Ross has closed the gap between her and the GOP incumbent Richard Burr. Burr leads by 2 points (45% to 43%) compared to the 45% to 41% advantage he held in Emerson's late-August poll.
In all three states, Clinton has edged up 2 or 3 points since a round of Emerson polls in late August and early September. She now holds a 2-point advantage over Trump (45% to 43%) in Ohio. She has a 3-point lead over him in Virginia (46% to 43%) and is up 4 points in North Carolina (46% to 42%).
Figure 2: Independents
| OH | VA | NC | |
| Clinton | 35% | 40% | 38% |
| Trump | 42% | 45% | 45% |
| Johnson | 12% | 13% | 6% |
| Stein | 5% | 1% | 5% |
| Unsure | 6% | 3% | 7% |
Although Trump continues to lead with Independents in all three states, Clinton has gained ground since the last round of Emerson polls. In Ohio, she is up 5 points (from 30% to 35%) while Trump is down 5 (from 47% to 42%). In Virginia, Independents' support for Clinton has increased from 35% to 40% while support for Trump has declined by 3 points, from 48% to 45%. In North Carolina, Clinton has gained 4 points, from 34% to 38% as Trump has held steady at 45%.
Except for Ohio, where Clinton now has a neutral favorability/unfavorability ratio of 50% to 50%, both candidates are under water with voters. However, Clinton is viewed more favorably than Trump in all three states, and his numbers have dropped in all three: going from –16 to –28 in Ohio, from –19 to –25 in Virginia and from –18 to –24 in North Carolina.
CALLER ID
The Emerson College Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina polls were conducted October 10-12, under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample for each poll consisted of 600 likely general election voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points. Data was weighted by 2012 election results, age, gender, race and party affiliation.
It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age and party breakdowns carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only. The full methodology and results can be found at www.theecps.com.
