World News: Iran is in Crisis, 12K Protestors Killed, Government is Falling
- Details
- Category: Haute This Issue
- Published on Tuesday, 13 January 2026 09:20
- Written by Olivier Longhi
Iran is wavering and staggering under the blows of demonstrations violently repressed by a desperate supreme leader, but for all that, will the Islamic Republic of Iran, standing since 1979, fall under the blows of popular protest?
The popular protests that have been shaking Iran for several days and violently repressed by the Mullahs' power aim at the fall of a regime despised by a majority of Iranians. But what will be the nature of the next regime? This is a crucial question that is already worrying the chancelleries in view of the interests at stake.
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Some would be tempted to answer in the affirmative, as the regime is accumulating successive crises that add to each other.
Economic and financial crises, social, political, religious crises... In short! The list is long and may not be exhaustive. Because in the opinion of all observers, the ayatollahs, starting with the first of all, Ali Khamenei, seem to have exhausted all possible solutions to keep the regime in place, the current repression only demonstrating the limits of a power overtaken by internal and external protest. The days of the Islamic Republic of Iran are therefore numbered. Certainly.
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Persian adventure
But once the regime falls, who will be able to take the reins of a country bled dry? We can therefore understand the hesitation tinged with caution of the West to get involved more than by outraged statements in view of the current events.
Even the warmonger Donald Trump, so quick to destabilize Venezuela, does not dream of venturing into a Persian adventure that would also bring back bad memories to the homeland of Uncle Sam, former President Jimmy Carter (1977 - 1981) having left, in part, his one and only term there. Because Iran is not just any country but a complex nation of 89 million inhabitants, rich in oil, a multitude of religious denominations more or less crushed by a Shiite majority far from wanting to be overwhelmed, heavy oil and port infrastructures, a cultured and educated youth, high-performance universities, a maritime opening to the strategic Persian Gulf and a geographical position that is just as important.
If the son of the former Shah of Iran Reza Pahlavi is fanning the embers of protest from a distance in the hope of being recalled to power in the event of the fall of the Mullahs, this is far from being unanimous, as the Iranian monarchical regime has left no positive memory in Iran.
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Vigilance
The question of succession is therefore acute, but on condition that the said succession is in line with international expectations, which are numerous and precise: agreement on nuclear power, on oil exports and exploitation, on support for Hamas and Hezbollah.
These are all points on which the West is extremely vigilant because, as detestable as the Iranian Islamic regime is, it also ensures a form of regional stability despite the difficulties encountered in establishing, yesterday as today, a constructive dialogue with the Mullahs, particularly on the nuclear issue or on Israel's security. The fall of the regime, which would be an excellent alternative for the vast majority of Iranians, would also be a double-edged sword for the West, a Mesopotamian Pandora's box, because it cannot predict to date who will take power and what its future orientations will be.
It is thus to be feared that, in the face of the romantic impetus of a social revolution that has become imperious in Iran, geopolitical realities will extinguish the libertarian desires of an Iranian population that is generally exasperated. Without stemming the protests or the fall of the regime, it is becoming increasingly clear that the cautious West will do nothing to hasten the end of the Islamic Republic.
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Bio: Olivier Longhi has extensive experience in European history. A seasoned journalist with fifteen years of experience, he is currently a professor of history and geography in the Toulouse region of France. He has held a variety of publishing positions, including Head of Agency and Chief of Publishing. A journalist and recognized blogger, editor, and editorial project manager, he has trained and managed editorial teams, worked as a journalist for various local radio stations, was a press and publishing consultant, and was a communications consultant.
