World News: Thinking Peace, Avoiding War Macron’s Balancing Act

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Category: World News - Europe

Published on Tuesday, 21 February 2023 09:42

Written by Olivier Longhi

French President Emmanuel Macron's desire not to humiliate Russia in the aftermath of the Russian-Ukraine conflict depicts the executive's ambition to anticipate peaceful diplomatic relations with Moscow while walking a tightrope with Ukraine's new global position.

By affirming that he wanted the defeat of Russia without it being crushed, Emmanuel Macron clearly shows his intentions, and those of French diplomacy with him, namely, to prepare the future of post-conflict Franco-Russian relations and more broadly of Russian-Western relations, with or without Putin all the while careful not to push Ukraine to make too many concessions at the risk of hurting Kiev and fueling new tensions.

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On the side of the Kremlin, the statements of the French president, considered worthless, would testify, still according to the Kremlin, the desire of Emmanuel Macron and the West to change the regime that currently prevails in Russia. These statements, which come at a crucial moment in the conflict, resonate in a very singular way since at a time when Ukraine is preparing to receive new armaments, including warplanes, likely to interfere in the course of the confrontation in favor of the country attacked.

Still, it now seems obvious that Westerners are now focusing more on the post-conflict period, and on the relations that should be maintained with Russia, than on the conflict as such, even if it remains a primary concern.

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Independence Flouted and A Single Outcome

However, regardless of what Emmanuel Macron said, this post-conflict period can only be conceived serenely if Vladimir Putin leaves power. It would indeed be difficult for the West to deal with a man and a country that have deliberately flouted the independence and territorial integrity of a sovereign nation in terms of the principles upheld by Ukraine's allies.

Difficult yes but not necessarily impossible because if Russia were to lose this war, nothing would be worse than humiliating it in a form of relentless diktat that would potentially make it even more aggressive, especially if Vladimir Putin were to remain in power. On the other hand, a gentle ouster of the strongman from the Kremlin would open up new perspectives on a continent now clearly divided in two.

So, what about the significance of the French president's statements? It is perilous from a diplomatic point of view to imagine only one way out of a conflict or crisis. However, if ending this war has become a priority and first of all for the Ukrainian people, it also appears that the room for negotiation is extremely limited for several reasons. Ukraine intends to recover the territories lost since the beginning of the conflict in February 2022 but also Crimea annexed by Russia in 2014; Russia, for its part, does not intend to abandon either Donbass or Crimea.

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Cooked and Compromised Hatreds

Dialogue of the deaf and diplomatic stalemate which, if not resolved, will fuel a conflict far from dying out as long as either side does not accept concessions. Hence, ultimately, the meaning of the words of President Macron, aware of the hardline aspect of the two belligerents, who understood, with others, that the outcome of the conflict should imperatively avoid defeating one or the other country engaged at the risk of feeding deep grudges quickly transformed into cooked and annealed hatreds.

This conflict, which is regional in nature but has a global dimension, which is nothing new in its unfolding, is unprecedented because of the calamitous consequences it could give birth to if it were to result in a capitulation of one or the other. If not humiliating Russia is an imperative, not pushing Ukraine to too many compromises to spare a wounded Russia is essential.

In addition, the latter, called upon to integrate the European Union, would one day be entitled to ask for more than material aid if a new Russian aggression occurred. So many reasons to integrate in order to lay the foundations for a lasting peace between the two countries.

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Bio: Olivier Longhi has extensive experience in European history. A seasoned journalist with fifteen years of experience, he is currently professor of history and geography in the Toulouse region of France. He has held a variety of publishing positions, including Head of Agency and Chief of Publishing. A journalist, recognized blogger, editor, and editorial project manager, he has trained and managed editorial teams, worked as a journalist for various local radio stations, a press and publishing consultant, and a communications consultant.