World News: Russia and Ukraine Collides with Destiny

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Category: World News - Europe

Published on Tuesday, 14 February 2023 11:51

Written by Olivier Longhi

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which is constantly being questioned over its outcome, is gradually settling into the global geopolitical landscape to the point of presenting all aspects of a conflict of global scope but with a strictly regional dimension.

As the anniversary of the Russian aggression in Ukraine, which began on February 24, 2022, approaches, the question of the outcome of the conflict now arises. Announced as lightning by Moscow a year ago, the war has become bogged down in an inertia capable of shattering Moscow's hopes for a quick settlement.

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Because the facts proved Vladimir Putin wrong, surprised and irritated by the Ukrainian resistance but especially by the reaction of the Europeans and the United States, all gathered under the banner of NATO, to materially help the country presided over by Volodymyr Zelensky.

Thus, we have entered into a form of conflict of attrition which, with each passing day, exhausts a little more the resources of all the belligerents. But to return to the original question of when the conflict will end, many are betting either on a negotiated peace in which Ukraine cedes the territories conquered by Moscow, an unthinkable solution for the Ukrainians, or on a capitulation of one side or the other.

And it seems from the current situation that neither Ukraine nor Russia is either ready to raise the white flag. Does this mean that this conflict will therefore be long-term to the point of integrating geopolitical daily life, or even become commonplace as were other conflicts in the past, like the civil war that bloodied Lebanon from 1975 to 1990?

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Encasement and The New Geopolitical Situation

The Western bloc, which has decided to stand up behind Ukraine, by announcing new arms deliveries, or Russia, which is finally not handicapped by the economic sanctions imposed on it, give the impression of preparing for a very long-term conflict that would become one of the components of the new global geopolitical situation.

China, reluctant to engage in the conflict at the risk of further souring its relations with the United States, will pose as an objective ally of Ukraine by preferring to limit its support to Vladimir Putin's Russia. As for Russia, trapped in a conventional war that the duration could make the Western side fail, the latter knows that any use, even limited of nuclear weapons, would lead to an uncontrollable chain reaction for which it does not wish to assume responsibility for let alone the consequences.

So all the ingredients for a long and costly conflict are thus present. And proof that the Russian-Ukrainian war is tending to become commonplace, energy prices, especially gas, have fallen to levels below those prevailing before the conflict.

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This trivialization of the conflict, which also seems to have been integrated by the stock markets and global economic actors, surprised in the early hours of the conflict, would even be on the way to reviving the military armaments economy that world peace and calmed tensions had pushed into a form of lethargy that many easily accommodated.

Global and Regional Conflict

This conflict, which brings diplomatic and geopolitical changes, has also been an opportunity for marginalized nations, such as Recep Erdogan's Turkey, to mediate without taking international advantage from it. And at the same time, from a conflict with a global scope that it has always been, the Russian-Ukrainian war is about to become, or assert itself as such, into a regional conflict, which external supporters, unofficial or official, manage to contain.

And the question of the future of the confrontation, understand, when will it end to arise again. Perhaps in several years, when Vladimir Putin will have left power (Recall that the Russian Constitution allows him to remain in power until 2036), when one of the countries will be totally exhausted or bloodless. Brief! The possibilities are numerous, but for the moment, none seems to be on the agenda.

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Bio: Olivier Longhi has extensive experience in European history. A seasoned journalist with fifteen years of experience, he is currently professor of history and geography in the Toulouse region of France. He has held a variety of publishing positions, including Head of Agency and Chief of Publishing. A journalist, recognized blogger, editor, and editorial project manager, he has trained and managed editorial teams, worked as a journalist for various local radio stations, a press and publishing consultant, and a communications consultant.