World News: Iran and the Youth Whirlwind

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Category: World News - Europe

Published on Monday, 10 October 2022 14:19

Written by Olivier Longhi

The recent protests in Iran have signaled to the world the possibility that a change in leadership is needed, as the Iranian youth tired of oppressive Islamic laws are seeking more freedom, western influence, and economic stability.

The wind of protest that has been blowing over Iran could sound the death knell for an exhausted and anachronistic regime. Iran's youth, eager for freedom, will make the regime waver but will not be able to bring it down definitively without the support of the West.

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No one knows if the popular revolt - why not speak of revolution? - which has been agitating Iran for a month now will make the mullahs' regime waver to the point of bringing down and in power since 1979.

Iranian society, which was inflamed after the death of Masha Amini on September 16, arrested by the morality police who accused her of visible hair, has since been crossed by a wave of demonstrations condemning on the one hand the death of the 22-year-old student but on the other hand all forms of repression applied in the name of Islamic law.

Iran, with a young, educated, and cultured population in a hurry to share in the benefits of globalization, is telling the regime in Tehran that the deprivation of liberty has lasted far too long. This revolt of Iranian youth, already disappointed by other movements of this type a few years ago, may well come to an end.

Sanctions and Hedonism

There are several reasons for this. First of all, the exhaustion of a regime that can no longer impose itself on a diplomatic scale, surrounded by heavy international sanctions that hinder its economic development and push inflation to record levels.

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This diplomatic and economic isolation is also coupled with a politico-religious isolation. Shiite in a 90% Sunni Muslim world, Iran can only find support in Hezbollah, certainly firmly established in Lebanon but losing momentum in the galaxy of Islamist movements. But the last hours of the mullahs' regime could mostly have their origins in The Iranian youth themselves. The new generation less submissive than its peers, less versed in the Coran or the holy texts than the Revolutionary Guards, on the other hand, is much fonder of modernity and new technologies than religious prohibitions.

Less docile, much more rebellious, and irreverent and more open to the world, Iran's youth nurture everything the regime prohibits: individual freedoms and hedonism. Accused of Westernism by the ruling castes, Iran's youth   are simply hungry for freedom and show their desire to live by leaving the frozen society in which the mullahs locked her up from birth.

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The end of the Iranian regime, which would mark a significant advance in international relations to the point of lowering the level of tension existing in the Middle East, would be the mark of the agony of one of the last vestiges of the Cold War.

Implosion and Discredit

The point of tension that constitutes Iran in northern Mesopotamia would then be dissolved by an implosion of the regime and not an explosion as some might have feared. Led by a youth eager for change, the protest, if successful, would signal future revolts in other countries in the region.

The quasi-monarchical powers of Recep Tayip Erdogan in Turkey or the bloody grip of Bashar Al-Assad on Syria would certainly be affected by Iranian emancipation, but it remains to be seen to what extent. For the time being, the protests continue and are repressed in blood and violence.

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But for how much longer? Because if the world's eyes are now on Kiev and the energy giants, the future Iranian crisis, if it were to drag on and become even more widespread, could easily arouse the interest of the Western powers who will always plead, in view of Iran's oil reserves, for a stable regime open to negotiation.

And to say that the latter are cynically waiting to appreciate the evolution of the situation is only an understatement. This may also be  an avenue to explore for Iranian youth: Western support to discredit the mullahs' regime. The question now is whether these same Westerners have put Iran on their future agenda.

Bio: Olivier Longhi has extensive experience in European history. A seasoned journalist with fifteen years of experience, he is currently professor of history and geography in the Toulouse region of France. He has held a variety of publishing positions, including Head of Agency and Chief of Publishing. A journalist, recognized blogger, editor, and editorial project manager, he has trained and managed editorial teams, worked as a journalist for various local radio stations, a press and publishing consultant, and a communications consultant.