World News: Ukrainian Conflict Unearths New Geopolitical Poles

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Category: World News - Europe

Published on Monday, 05 September 2022 17:56

Written by Janet Walker

Trigger or accelerator, the Ukrainian conflict has revealed the emergence of several geopolitical poles working for their survival and relying on the fears and structural weaknesses of societies that are ultimately fragile and exposed.

Is not fine diplomate who wants. The President of the Republic Emmanuel Macron has experienced this, bathed in disillusionment, while the Ukrainian conflict tends to be long-term. There is no need here to go back over the economic and energy consequences of this charter.

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General inflation, rising energy costs, forced and accelerated questioning of carbon models... The list is by no means exhaustive and calls for a rapid, fair, and relevant reflection on the modes of operation that must imperatively be ours in the years to come. After this alarming observation, there is another one that is also necessary. The conflict in Ukraine has laid the foundations for a new partition of the world.

Hitherto agitated by the upheavals of local and distant conflicts, controlled by a few UN resolutions or the intervention of a third Western power, the world is now forced to adapt to the appearance of new geopolitical blocs, systems that are forerunners of confrontation, not militarian (even if the latter are not to be totally ruled out) but truly ideological. There is no need once again to summon the obsolete models of Marxism as the engine of history or liberal democracy as the standard-bearer of savage capitalism.

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Troika and Dependency

Ideology today means the will of countries united by common interests and circumstances to create political, economic, and geostrategic spaces capable of ensuring their survival in an early age. The rapprochement, the result of the Ukrainian conflict between Russia, Turkey, and China, illustrates this desire to establish itself worldwide as a form of Eastern troika, even if Turkey is here a poor relation of the situation.

Ditto for the United States, which, aware of the weakness and wanderings of the European Union in the face of Russia and the energy issue, will not cease to work discreetly to weaken the Euro, to strengthen its cooperation with Saudi Arabia or to strive to forge special alliances with members of the European Union in order to, unofficially, to crack a still fragile ensemble given its age, barely 65 years old, a dust in history.

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It is a clever way to keep the European Union in a situation of dependence under the guise of a real political alliance. China, whose eyes have been on Taiwan for years, knows that any intervention carried out alone would lead it to failure but supported by Russia, in a cynical game of three-band billiards, could easily take the plunge in the coming years without the Western nations daring to intervene.

Risk and Compromise

Because fear is also one of the diplomatic elements that comes into play. Admittedly, although this is nothing new and remains one of the fundamental bases of all negotiations, fear has taken a major place in our societies in recent years, turning hope and trust into outdated principles.

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Fear of nuclear escalation, an accelerating climate crisis, a collapse of contemporary societies and the like are becoming the leitmotif of governments willing to decide in favor of compromise rather than risk. Reprehensible choice?

It is up to each individual to judge by their own convictions. But, following the example of Vladimir Putin, convinced and obviously rightly so that the Western nations would not intervene directly in Ukraine, he highlighted how compromise, here accepting a conflict at the gates of Europe at the cost of economic destabilization rather than a frontal conflict with Western Europe, remained the final choice of frightened nations. If cynicism has always been part of the diplomatic game, Charles-Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord would not deny it, it is now reaching heights whose height is not yet known.

Bio: Olivier Longhi has extensive experience in European history. A seasoned journalist with fifteen years of experience, he is currently professor of history and geography in the Toulouse region of France. He has held a variety of publishing positions, including Head of Agency and Chief of Publishing. A journalist, recognized blogger, editor, and editorial project manager, he has trained and managed editorial teams, worked as a journalist for various local radio stations, a press and publishing consultant, and a communications consultant.