The diplomatic and military escalation initiated by Vladimir Putin reflects all the contempt of man for the democratic principles defended by the West but also raises questions about the relations that should be maintained with him in the future.

By announcing to put on alert the deterrent force, which includes a nuclear component, Vladimir Putin is paving the way for a new unambiguous discourse. He who in paranoid rhetoric physically attacks Ukraine, then NATO, the United States and the entire Western bloc to justify his military action, now poses the essential question of the relations that the West will have to maintain in the future with his person. And let's make no mistake about it.

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Already complex and complicated, relations with Vladimir Putin will, once the conflict is over, and it is to be hoped that this will be made almost impossible as soon as possible and whatever the outcome. There are several reasons for this. Thus, if the conflict with Ukraine ended in a Ukrainian victory, Putin's aggressiveness would certainly only increase tenfold and push international relations into limits that would, if they do not cross it, be the unthinkable.

If the Ukrainian conflict were to end in a Russian victory, it is highly likely that Putin's appetite would not be limited to Ukraine alone. To say that the world is now embroiled in a major crisis that is jeopardizing the peace of the planet is not an exaggeration. Current diplomatic relations, where acute economic interests and the will to power are mixed, offer a fertile ground for this catastrophic scenario.

If Vladimir Putin lives in the hope of reconstituting the former Russian Empire, the one that prevailed in the nineteenth century, the fruit of the tsarist conquests, China also maintains the idea, via the annexation one day soon of Taiwan, to revive the Middle Kingdom, cornerstone of past Asia. And what about Erdogan's Turkey, caught in the fantasy of the rebirth of the Ottoman Empire.

Frustration and Democratic Success

So, what about future relations with Vladimir Putin? Tinged with permanent blackmail, recurrent tensions and territorial concessions, all placed under the seal of nuclear deterrence capable of paralyzing any decision or, on the contrary, made of firmness supported by an equivalent military device that would send Russia and the West back to the greatest hours of the Cold War?

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Except that if the Cold War was the result of political opposition, it was not marked by mutual hatred. What differentiates the Cold War from the current situation is Vladimir Putin's deep contempt, if not more, for the Western world. In a delirium, the word is not wrong, which is its own Vladimir Putin pours a torrent of frustration against a West judged at the origin of all the ills of contemporary Russia.

The democratic success of the former satellite countries of the USSR, except Hungary, offends an individual convinced that authoritarianism is the only possible social matrix for administering a state. How then to envisage a serene and balanced discourse with such an individual? The answer certainly lies in question.

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By mobilizing the deterrent system on the pretext that the sanctions affecting his economic and financial fabric taken against him are illegitimate, Vladimir Putin hopes to weaken Westerners deemed weak and apathetic, even flippant during nearly thirty years of diplomatic relations with Russia.

A Cornered Beast

Another aspect of future relations is the need to reintegrate Russia into the field of security in Europe and in the world in general. The negotiations started with Emmanuel Macron and then Joe Biden's agreement to organize a meeting on the subject were in the direction of this reinstatement.

By forcing Ukraine's borders, by flouting international law that recognizes each State to consent to the alliances that suit it, Vladimir Putin has swept away these efforts, preferring recognition by force rather than negotiation. How, then, to start a negotiation process again when the doors of the States that were ready to trade.

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Having become a global pariah, able to rely only on China, itself concerned about safeguarding the confidence of its economic allies the United States and Western Europe, Vladimir Putin is about to find himself alone against the whole world.