World News: Iranian War Highlights Defense Department Weaknesses

The war in Iran, now thirteen days old with an equal number of U.S. soldiers killed, begs the question is the war an opportunity to flex, to settle old scores or respond to the human rights abuses.

Opened with the objective of quickly overthrowing the mullahs' regime, the conflict led by Israel and the United States tends to drag on, raising the question of the involvement of ground troops and that of nations hitherto spared but brought to take part in it first defensively or even more potentially.


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It was to be a short, almost lightning war, waged jointly by two determined countries, Israel perhaps more than the United States, that would bring the Iranian regime to its knees and pave the way for a popular revolt leading to a sovereign, peaceful democracy open to the world. It had to.

Except that more than twelve days later, the Islamic Republic of Iran, despite the Dantesque bombings it is undergoing, is still resisting. Worse! Iran even allows itself the luxury of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil traffic passes, and in turn bombing its neighboring countries, directly or through affiliated groups, with a view to setting the Middle East ablaze.

Donald Trump, convinced of the power of the American army, and Benjamin Netanyahu would never have imagined that Tehran could resist with such ferocity in contempt of its own people, destitute but full of hopes of seeing the fall of the Islamic Republic.

And now the question of the duration of the conflict is clearly posed in addition to another observation: Iran is not Venezuela and its global influence other than that of Caracas.


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Public opinion

However, if the question of duration arises, so does the need to ratify or not the sending of ground troops to definitively bring down the Islamic Republic. And it seems obvious that neither Donald Trump nor Benjamin Netanyahu are inclined to do so, nor are their respective public opinions. The Iraqi and Afghan precedents having cooled Uncle Sam's ardor in this matter, Israel is far from being able to send men in situ, the IDF being more of a defensive army than a large-scale occupation army.

At the same time, domestic politics cannot be avoided in this issue, and the mid-term elections in the United States, which are supposed to renew the House of Representatives in November, could push the President of the United States even more to imagine a quick and favorable outcome to avoid an electoral setback that could paralyze him until the end of his term. This is without counting on a MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement and a vice-president J.D. Vance who is generally reserved about the intervention in Iran.


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Retaliation

To date, it is clear that no way out of the crisis is in sight in a context of soaring oil prices, to which Donald Trump has responded by authorizing the use until 11 April of Russian oil seized in retaliation for the war between Russia and Ukraine. The operation allows, in passing, Vladimir Putin to indirectly pose as a relative savior of the underlying oil crisis, while inflicting a slap in the face to Volodymyr Zelensky, who sees his conflict move to the second rank of American concerns.

The dangerous escalation that the Iranian conflict has opened up has also ended up affecting, as collateral victims, nations that were not originally involved but which, through a domino effect, see themselves embroiled in the confrontation. The latest example to date is France, which lost a soldier near Erbil (Kurdistan) via a drone launched by a pro-Iranian group determined to target French interests. And what about the Gulf countries, which are also under fire from Iranian drones, involved in a conflict with progressively global consequences and which escape those who initiated it.


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Bio: Olivier Longhi has extensive experience in European history. A seasoned journalist with fifteen years of experience, he is currently a professor of history and geography in the Toulouse region of France. He has held a variety of publishing positions, including Head of Agency and Chief of Publishing. A journalist and recognized blogger, editor, and editorial project manager, he has trained and managed editorial teams, worked as a journalist for various local radio stations, was a press and publishing consultant, and was a communications consultant.

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