Breaking: Extreme Fire Risk Continues with Gusty Santa Ana Winds In Southern California
- Details
- Category: Earth, Air, Space Science
- Published on Tuesday, 14 January 2025 10:40
- Written by Contributing Editor
Families and businesses are urged to remain vigilant for the threat of wildfires spreading, new fires sparking, and new evacuation orders being issued as gusty Santa Ana winds impact areas hit hard by fast-moving, wind-driven infernos last week.
"Any fire that breaks out could be extremely fast-moving," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski warned. "Fires still burning from last week's event could jump containment lines, and burning embers could be carried long distances and spark new spot fires."
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Image courtesy of AccuWeather.
AccuWeather is forecasting 60 to 80mph gusts in Santa Ana wind-prone areas through Wednesday morning, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of100 mph.
The Palisades, Eaton, Auto, and other fires burning in the region are at risk of rapid expansion as intense winds increase across the region.
The strong winds, coupled with low humidity levels, can lead to rapidly spreading fires across the region.The primary wind direction will be from the northeast through Wednesday morning.
Breaking: Extreme Fire Risk in Southern California as Powerful Santa Ana Winds Return
There will also be widespread areas of smoke from the fires, which will make for very poor air quality downwind of the fires. People in the region are being urged to limit their exposure to wildfire smoke and to use N95 respirator masks when outdoors.
AccuWeather air quality updates, alerts, and an air quality forecast are available on the AccuWeather app and AccuWeather.com.
Image courtesy of AccuWeather.
Gusty winds could ground some firefighting aircraft at times, making containment efforts extremely challenging. Winds in the immediate Los Angeles basin should not be quite as strong as they were during the extreme and rare windstorm last week; however, winds of any sort will pose a fire risk.
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While the primary wind direction is expected to be out of the northeast, the exact track and location of a storm off the Pacific coast will ultimately determine if the winds can attain more of a northern or eastern component. This would result in areas along the southern and western flanks of the active fires experiencing the highest risk for additional spread, but due to the rugged terrain and swirling winds that can occur in the vicinity of the mountains, all communities near the active fires should remain on high alert.
AccuWeather's preliminary estimate for the total damage and economic loss for the fires burning across Southern California is $250 billion to $275 billion.
AccuWeather incorporates independent methods to evaluate all direct and indirect impacts of the storm and is based on a variety of sources, statistics and unique techniques AccuWeather uses to estimate the damage. It includes damage to property, job and wage losses, crops, infrastructure damage, interruption of the supply chain, auxiliary business losses and flight delays. The estimate also accounts for the costs of evacuations, relocations, emergency management and the extraordinary government expenses for cleanup operations and the long-term effects on business logistics, transportation and tourism as well as the health effects and the medical and other expenses of unreported deaths and injuries, as well as the long tail of negative impacts to physical and mental health that survivors may face in the next decade.
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AccuWeather Long-Range Forecast
Following the strong offshore winds expected through Wednesday, AccuWeather expert meteorologists expect a decrease in winds for the remainder of the week. However, the risk of Santa Ana winds will increase late this weekend into early next week. AccuWeather experts will continue to monitor the potential for these winds that could lead to an increased fire risk.
The dry landscape is in dire need of moisture. The parched vegetation has provided a ready supply of fuels for area fires scorching the region.
"Dating back to April of last year,Los Angeleshas not yet crested the 1-inch mark for rainfall. This is a period when downtown L.A. typically receives between 5-6 inches of rain," Sosnowski said.
Much of the Southwest and portions of the South-Central states are forecast to remain below the historical average of rainfall through the remainder of January.
AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok says there are minimal rain chances in the Los Angeles area through the end of January, followed by an increased chance of rain during the weeks of Feb. 10 and Feb. 17.
"There could be a shower or two Jan. 18-19, but it is not expected to be meaningful to aid in reducing fire spread or risk. There is another chance of rain Jan. 26-28, but that should also just be a few showers. The best chance of rain over the next six weeks appears to be Feb. 10-23. If appreciable rain doesn't occur then, it may turn dry into much of March, further exacerbating the situation," Pastelok warned.
