World News: Presidential Refrain Hits a Sour Note

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Category: World News - Europe

Published on Tuesday, 16 January 2024 11:03

Written by Olivier Longhi

The election of the President of the United States next November will be the epicenter of future international relations in the context of the conflicts in Ukraine and against Hamas and U.S. allies will need contingency plans.

Because with the potential election of Donald Trump, the soothing diplomatic environment desired by Joe Biden could sink into a radicalism with serious consequences. This is a music that comes back every four years and that comes from the New World, when it is embodied by the all-powerful United States, is preparing, as is the case this year, to elect its president. Unsurprisingly, however, the last two candidates for the supreme office, Joe Biden and Donald Trump, loom on the horizon.

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The latter, who was thought to have been definitively excluded from the race for the White House because of the multiple scandals that punctuated his single term (2017 - 2021), in particular his role in the storming of the Capitol in January 2021, is now finally posing as a very serious rival to the outgoing president. So, how would the election of Donald Trump change from the perspective of Europe and the rest of the world as a general rule?

Buy-in and Proximity

Two essential elements of a diplomatic nature would thus be on the new president's agenda. First, the aid provided by the United States to Ukraine in the conflict that has opposed it since February 2022 to Russia has never won the support of the former president.

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His election campaign, then as now, based on the slogan "America First," could spell the end of American assistance to the Central European republic. Donald Trump, who has never hidden his closeness to Vladimir Putin, who intervened in his election in 2016 via illicit computer means, would have the opportunity to strengthen his ties with the Kremlin leader by depriving Ukraine of a precious ally while leaving the field open to Moscow, unless the European Union is seen, which is unlikely, to assert itself as a military and diplomatic power capable of replacing all US aid, Donald Trump is just waiting for that.

Secondly, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. While the United States has remained Israel's main supporter since the 1960s, the evolution of the current situation in Gaza and the conflict could nevertheless push Donald Trump to be cautious, as is the case today in the diplomacy led by Joe Biden and Anthony Blinken.

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Diplomatic Pressure Cooker

Too much support for Israel would have the immediate consequence of further irritating Iran, but also Hamas and Hezbollah, not to mention the Arab powers, which have been silent so far but could also be annoyed by the interventionism of the United States.

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The Middle East, a diplomatic pressure cooker if ever there was one, will undoubtedly constitute, perhaps even more than the Ukrainian issue, one of the anchors of Donald Trump's campaign, aware that his exacerbated protectionist electorate will be more inclined to support Israel than Ukraine.

In a context of latent economic deterioration associated with the decay of the two conflicts mentioned, Donald Trump could, once again, appear as the lifeline of a part of the population of the United States that does not pay much attention to the form used to solve problems as long as the content, however inadequate, meets the isolationist expectations of a nation ultimately divided.

Bio: Olivier Longhi has extensive experience in European history. A seasoned journalist with fifteen years of experience, he is currently professor of history and geography in the Toulouse region of France. He has held a variety of publishing positions, including Head of Agency and Chief of Publishing. A journalist, recognized blogger, editor, and editorial project manager, he has trained and managed editorial teams, worked as a journalist for various local radio stations, a press and publishing consultant, and a communications consultant.