World News: French Legislative Election Yield an Assembly of Circumstances

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Category: World News - Europe

Published on Wednesday, 22 June 2022 15:36

Written by Olivier Longhi

The new National Assembly will be subject to the reign of compromise and coalitions of circumstance if each opposition party wishes to make its mark on this or that law and turn this potpourri of parties into a Macron victory.

Among all the comments and analyses that the results of the legislative elections have brought, many of them have highlighted the impossibility for the President of the Republic to sit on a reliable majority, the emergence of the left alliance, the push of the National Rally, all elements that gave, and still give to the National Assembly, an unprecedented aspect under the Fifth Republic.

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And among the multiple avatars linked to this very particular election, the will for each party in the presence and not majority to want to retain its independence. This last aspect is also interesting in more ways than one because it highlights the need for historical figures (The Republicans, Socialist Party, Europe Ecology - The Greens, National Rally) to continue to exist in a political landscape upset by five of Macronism.

The unexpected results in terms of votes and seats for these same parties are now almost like a form of revenge against an Emmanuel Macron hit on the flank. However, the desire to maintain a political identity in spite of accounting realities that will eventually prevail during the passing of laws, testifies to the despair and weakness of formations that are struggling to survive.

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Looking through the lens of impossibility, the thought now is how to turn an electoral slap into a victory for a relative majority that has become unavoidable. However, let's return for a moment the results obtained.

Compromise and Coalition

Certainly the presidential majority is strong only a relative majority but remains the first formation of France from an electoral point of view. The opposition parties, as they present themselves and claim to be powerful, but plagued by possible divisions, are the expression of a protest or conservative electorate, which individually are in the minority at national level.

The need for the presidential party to negotiate and forge selected and relevant alliances is imposed, as is the need to water down the bills that candidate Macron carried. From this quest for the existence of historical parties, the presidential party could benefit because it is unlikely that nudes and gathering National will be able to agree on any text, even if it is of social essence, a concern shared by both parties.

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The democratic crisis that the country is experiencing, and which is illustrated by the extreme fragility of the balances within the National Assembly can also be interpreted as a solution to the said crisis. By playing the game of coalition and demanding compromise, as is often the case in Germany, and in order not to block the country, the presidential majority would then have a significant asset first by its number then, ironically of the situation, by making itself indispensable to oppositions anxious to make their mark in the projects or proposals of laws, the latter being forced to deal with the inevitable relative majority.

Therefore, the new configuration of the National Assembly is a real textbook case of political science, between realism and compromise or how to transform an electoral slap into a very fragile silent victory.

Because by giving a wider influence, admittedly fake and superficial, to the parties of opposition than that which their initial presence in the Hemicycle confers on them by their number of seats, the majority would push these same parties to an obligation of excellence and demand towards their voters who will expect results loyal to the commitments made during the campaign.

And from there could arise disillusionment and discrepancy between convinced voters and MPs who have to bend to compromise. May this mandate promise to be rich in twists and turns!

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Bio: Olivier Longhi has extensive experience in European history. A seasoned journalist with fifteen years of experience, he is currently professor of history and geography in the Toulouse region of France. He has held a variety of publishing positions, including Head of Agency and Chief of Publishing. A journalist, recognized blogger, editor, and editorial project manager, he has trained and managed editorial teams, worked as a journalist for various local radio stations, a press and publishing consultant, and a communications consultant.