Election 2016 New Poll: Trump Pulls Ahead of Clinton in Key Swing States

AddThis Social Bookmark Button

Donald Trump

Republican Donald Trump leads Democrat Hillary Clinton in the critical general election swing states of Florida and Pennsylvania, according to the latest polling data from Quinnipiac University released Wednesday. The poll reveals Trump and Clinton are tied in Ohio.

Trump now holds a three-point lead in Florida and a two-point lead in Pennsylvania, according to the InsideGov visualization below.

But Trump’s leads widen when taking into account third-party candidates, suggesting that third-party options peel away more support from Clinton than from Trump.

In Pennsylvania, Trump holds a 40 percent to 34 percent advantage, with Libertarian Gary Johnson capturing 9 percent and the Green Party’s Jill Stein grabbing 3 percent. In Florida, Trump bests Clinton 41 percent to 36 percent, while Johnson gets 7 percent and Stein gets 4 percent. The race is much tighter in Ohio, where Trump leads by just 1 percent. Johnson is at 7 percent and Stein is at 6 percent in the Buckeye State.

The poll was conducted from June 30 to July 11, a particularly topsy-turvy period in the presidential contest.

Over the July 4 holiday weekend, Trump set the internet on fire when he tweeted out an image of Clinton with $100 bills and a six-pointed star with the words “most corrupt candidate ever.” Critics claimed the tweet was anti-Semitic, while Trump maintained the star was based off a sheriff’s star as opposed to the Star of David. (Trump deleted the original tweet, and later reposted the graphic, with a circle replacing the star.)

A few days later, FBI Director James Comey addressed Clinton’s email and server use, recommending that no criminal charges be brought against the former secretary of state. But he also delivered a stinging, primed-for-attack-ads admonition to Clinton and her staff, saying, “Although we did not find clear evidence that Secretary Clinton or her colleagues intended to violate laws governing the handling of classified information, there is evidence that they were extremely careless in their handling of very sensitive, highly classified information.”

And just a few days after that, three separate shootings — in Louisiana, Minnesota and Dallas — reignited the ongoing national conversation about gun violence and race relations. In a departure from his sharp reaction after the shooting in June at an Orlando gay club, Trump delivered a more measured response after the recent spate of violence. But the New York Times reported that the Trump team continues to struggle with how to get its candidate to respond calmly after tragedy.

However, the Quinnipiac data indicates the jam-packed news cycle has boosted Trump rather than Clinton.

The businessman beats out Clinton on who voters think would do a better job at handling ISIS and creating jobs. In Florida, for example, 57 percent of voters think Trump would be more effective against ISIS, and 54 percent think Trump would be better at creating jobs. Voters are more evenly split when it comes to who they think would better handle immigration.

Voters in those three swing states also give the edge to Trump when it comes to who they think is more honest and trustworthy and who is the stronger leader. But voters are evenly divided when it comes to who they think has higher moral standards.

Both Trump and Clinton continue to suffer from very high unfavorable marks. Things look particularly dire for Clinton in Pennsylvania, where 65 percent of voters say they have a somewhat unfavorable or strongly unfavorable opinion of her.

Trump’s numbers for that question hover in the 50s, with his highest unfavorable marks coming out of Ohio.

These swing state-specific numbers are a departure from national trends. Although they both are deeply unpopular, Clinton’s net favorability scores are better than Trump’s, according to polling data compiled by RealClearPolitics.

The poll does offer a sliver of good news for Clinton: Voters across the board think Clinton is better prepared to be president. For instance, in Ohio, her lead balloons to 23 points on that question.

For Clinton, the challenge will be to convert that sentiment into votes. But as this most recent poll shows, that will be an uphill battle in states where people have questions about her effectiveness and leadership. While this one survey among many indicates a shift toward Trump, Election Day is still several months off, meaning there’s plenty more race to go.

More: With Hail of Lawsuits Pending, Americans Divided on Bathroom Bill

Follow InsideGov on Twitter: @inside_gov

Research More About the 2016 Election

Haute Tease

  • Money News: Dow Caught in Bear Trap; World Markets Split 80/20

    AddThis Social Bookmark Button

    The DOW Jones Industrial Average fell to the bear over the past week with limited collateral damage across global markets as the world markets bounced back from the devastating free-fall of the past week. 

  • Beltway Insider: U.S. Sends Fleet to Aid Airliner Search: G7 Firm on Russian Sanctions; Overtime Pay, Emergency UI

    AddThis Social Bookmark Button

    President Obama, amidst plummeting approval ratings, continues to force the economy forward implementing his Action Year Plan to aid American workers who are still carrying the burden of the global economic fallout and recession.

  • Unique Lotus Evora Sport 410 Honours Iconic Esprit S1; Tribute To One Of Lotus' Most Famous Liveries

    AddThis Social Bookmark Button

    Representing the state of the Supercar art, a one-off Evora Sport 410 has been commissioned through Lotus Exclusive as a tribute to one of its most famous ancestors, the Lotus Esprit S1.

  • Five Dallas Police Officers Dead; Seven Others Injured in Peace March Ambush

    AddThis Social Bookmark Button

    Five Dallas Police Officers have died and seven others injured in an ambush as a protest over the recurring use of excessive and deadly force against unarmed African Americans turned violent leaving a city and nation stunned.

  • X-Men: First Class - First Class Fun!

    AddThis Social Bookmark Button

    X-MEN: FIRST CLASS, a high action, entertaining sci-fi flick from Twentieth Century Fox, Marvel Entertainment and Dune Entertainment, recently screened for members of the press on the FOX STUDIO lot in Century City, CA.

  • Beltway Insider: Obama Address World Leaders; Paris Climate Agreement; Beijing Red Alert; Jared Fogle

    AddThis Social Bookmark Button

    President Obama announced, just one month after the French Terror Attacks, Paris has a new image, one where 190 nations and leaders came together to negotiate terms for an historic climate agreement that will reduce the carbon emission worldwide.

  • Shooting Erupts at LAX Airport; TSA Officer Killed

    AddThis Social Bookmark Button

    A Transportation Security Agency agent was shot and killed when a single suspect opened fire at the Los Angeles International Airport, firing as many as 20 rounds with a high powered assault weapon.

  • The Magic Kingdom, Plagued by Production Delays, Reshuffles its 2014 Slate

    AddThis Social Bookmark Button

    One week after Walt Disney Studios announced the delay of the much anticipated “Pirates of the Caribbean 5,” Disney Pixar announced the delay of two of its animated projects leaving the summer 2014 tent pole season sagging.


    AddThis Social Bookmark Button

    LOS ANGELES, CA, April 8, 2013 – The epic miniseries, THE BIBLE, continues its unprecedented success with its home entertainment launch and quickly became the biggest selling TV on DVD in the last 5 years and the biggest miniseries of all time on Blu-ray™, Digital HD™ and DVD in its first week of release.  THE BIBLE series is flying off store shelves around the country with 525,000 units sold.

  • Michael Flynn, National Security Adviser, Resigns (Letter Included); Exposing Trump’s Missteps and Misplaced Loyalties

    AddThis Social Bookmark Button

    The resignation of Michael Flynn, the newly appointed National Security Adviser, in reality, is probably the only move recommended by the Trump Administration that reminds the world that even in Trumpland some old school rules still apply.

  • Celebrity Real Estate News: Johnny Carson’s Stunning Malibu Beach Home On Market

    AddThis Social Bookmark Button

    The King of the late-night talk shows host Johnny Carson was a standout among entertainers. Though three preceded him in the genre: Arthur Godfrey, Steve Allen and Jack Parr, it was Carson who became the icon of late-night talk shows.

  • A Case of You Review – A Cute Romantic Comedy in a 4G Social Media World

    AddThis Social Bookmark Button

    “A Case of You,” from Lagniappe Films and I’m So Sorry Productions, is a modern twist on the New York urban romance myth where boy meets girl, they connect, romance blossoms and love is created.

  • Guilty Verdict Long Overdue in Etan Patz Murder

    AddThis Social Bookmark Button

    A Manhattan jury deliberated nine days before it rendered a guilty verdict in the 40-year-old kidnapping and murder of eight-year-old Etan Patz who disappeared in 1979 as he walked to school in New York City.

  • RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES: A Rupert Wyatt/20th Century Fox Film

    AddThis Social Bookmark Button

    RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES, a frighteningly credible, captivating adventure, previewed recently for members of the press at the Zanuck Theater on the 20th Century Fox Studio Lot in Culver City, California.

  • Dems Win House Put Brakes on Trump Reign; Senate Remains Red

    AddThis Social Bookmark Button

    Americans flocked to the polls yesterday, taking decisive action in the historic mid-term elections and put the brakes on President Trump’s steamrolling agenda winning back the House of Representative for the first time in eight years.